SciPredict
Forecasting · 2026-01-15
Forecast accuracy on 405 real scientific experiment outcomes in physics, biology, and chemistry under the No Background Knowledge (NBK) condition. Published results average three trials and their error bars are run standard deviations, not 95 percent confidence intervals. Observation sampling metadata preserves the repeated mean without multiplying the distinct-task count.
Top models (higher is better)
| Model | Score |
|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro Preview | 25.3 |
| Opus 4.5 | 23.1 |
| Sonnet 4.5 | 22.6 |
| Opus 4.1 | 22.2 |
| Gemini 3 Flash Preview | 22.2 |
| GPT-5.2 | 20.6 |
| o3-mini | 19.8 |
| DeepSeek-V3 | 19.2 |
| Llama 3.3 70B Instruct | 18.2 |
| o3 | 17.9 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | 17.0 |
| Qwen3 32B | 17.0 |
| Qwen3-235B-A22B | 16.6 |
| O4 Mini | 16.2 |
| Llama 3.1 8B Instruct | 14.7 |